A nation state attacking another state is a simple way of establishing who the enemy is. However, as the boundaries of multiculturism, ideology, politics and religion become increasingly blurred, so the identity of the enemy is much more easily disguised. Being unable to see the workings behind the green curtain, makes condemning aggressive factions much less straight forward.
It is also easy to conflate the goals of the minority terrorist group, with the much larger cultural and religious groups with whom they identify. The global internet informs, yet disinforms us of the true nature of these struggles, amplifying the conflation and blurring the boundaries between criminal acts and normal cultural and religious behaviour.
As history and the reporting of current affairs is so complex it remains fragmented, perhaps necessarily so for reasons of national security and maintaining a general sense of calm. This causes a trend towards individualistic myopia, and the projection of morals and ethics on to cultures, nations and factions that do not operate by the same rules. It is easy to miss the clear signs of aggression from one group or another. Everything seems so utterly chaotic from the distance of the internet, that some observers are easily taken ideologically captive by the enemy for their own purposes.
In this article we will be looking at some of the Middle Eastern terrorist designated groups, how the structures of factions can change over time according to allegiances, how they relate to countries and other groups within what is known as the Axis of Resistance between Iran and its proxies, and the possible role of religion as a tool not only of cohesion but of regional dominance.
As the collective enemy is so hard to define, two examples may help to clarify how one country can be formally taking part in overarching agreements between nations, yet their landscape is riddled with autonomous or semi-autonomous warring factions. Two western terrorist organisations we have spoken about before are the Red Army Faction, based in Dresden during the Cold War, and the IRA from Ireland. Both of these factions drove forward an agenda of terror that had the primary aims of destabilising the US and British military presence in post war Germany and Northern Ireland.
These groups used terror attacks on both military and civilian populations to try to force the hand of the respective countries’ political decision making. Both groups operated with relatively small numbers of active members, in comparison to the populations they aimed to terrorise, and not necessarily with agreement or knowledge of the political parties running the respective countries.
The Fertile Crescent
In our analysis most extremist factions tend to be centred in areas of geopolitical and economic interest. The Fertile Crescent of what was Babylonia, then part of the Roman Empire, then later the Ottoman Empire, is not only an area of great wealth in terms of fertile lands, and valuable mining resources, but also the gateway for global trade from east to west and north to south. This area has been fought over for thousands of years.
Many of the tribes of this area were nomadic, moving when there was drought to where they could provide water and grazing for their livestock. Tribes commonly raided and plundered established sedentary communities, taking animals, goods and also captives. In the book ‘Arabs and Empires before Islam’ (2015), the author Umair Mirza collects together the rich and complicated history of the relationship between Empires and the tribes. The Chapter Arabs in the Conflict between Rome and Persia, AD 491-630 details how certain Arab and Persian tribes were hired as militia in the battles of expanding empires, with semi-autonomy over their activities. Some were paid handsomely, but with that, whoever paid the highest price could quickly win the allegiance of the militia from the opposing side. Often the Arab tribes were found to disobey treaties drawn up to establish battle lines between these large empires. They would ransack communities at will and take the spoils, often destabilising agreements for land and border rights.
This role of militia to larger geopolitical entities has continued through the centuries. The establishment of Islam provided a religious banner under which all of these Arabian tribes and militia could coalesce, though it was not and still isn’t quite as straight forward as all that. Allegiances can and do change, often resulting in sides, who have the same fundamental goals, disagreeing and fighting with each other.
Similarly a complex system of rebel and warring factions scatter the world. Many are now designated terrorist organisations by individual nations and the United Nations, sometimes by the nation they reside in.
Infighting
We have found that more than one terrorist organisation can operate within a single nation state. They might collaborate with each other and the state or be at odds. Groups also splinter and off-shoots can join other factions. Tracking these changes is like tracking the movement of sand in the Sahara.
The Salafist Jihadist group, Jund al-Aqsa, for example, battled in the Syrian Civil War against President Assad and formed an al-Qaeda subunit under Al-Nusra. Disagreements between Al-Nusra and Islamic state, coupled with organisational and financial problems, led Jund al-Aqsa to splinter off, but they continued to collaborate with al-Qaeda and the new command Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (JFS). They took part in seizing Idlib in 2015 from the Assad regime in Syria, but then splintered off from JFS over disagreements. In 2016 they again supported Islamic State and Al-Nusra, once he had ended relations with Al-Qaeda and moved to JFS. Jund al-Aqsa hoped Al-Nusra would form Sharia rule in Syria. However, Jund al-Aqsa was denounced by JFS in 2017 for continued attacks on another JFS brigade Ahrar al-Sham, leading to the dispersal of it’s fighters to other groups.
Religion and the Middle East
Three key religions have arisen from the Middle East. Judaism was established approximately 4000 years ago. Codification of Hebrew laws began between 1200-800 BCE during their enslavement in Eygpt, and continued as the Hebrews found themselves exiled a number of times from Jerusalem and Israel. The Assyrians deported the Jews in 722 BCE, who were scattered widely outside of Israel. In 597-586 BCE the Chaldeans led by Nebuchadnezzar drove wealthy Jews out in to Babylon, and curried favour with the poor that remained, redistributing the wealthy owners’ land to them. The exile ended in 538 BCE when Persia overthrew the Chaldeans. During this time the Jews struggled to come to terms with an exile they could find no explanation for. They were loosing faith in Yaweh. This led to a reassessment of the Jewish faith, and solidification of their religion within their exiled community.
In some senses the New Testament of the Bible codified from the teachings of Jesus of Nazareth circa 30-33 AD, represented another reassessment of the existing Jewish faith and laws. We might describe it as further refining of the principles of a life under God, and now Jesus. Christianity was adopted by some Jews, some Arabic tribes including leaders, and was also embraced over time by the Roman Empire, who dominated the eastern Mediterranean region at the time. The religious texts of the Old and New Testament are presented together today by the Christian faith, where lessons are taken from both books. The Jewish religion continues to take their lessons from the Tanakh, Talmud and Midrash. Both religions are monotheistic and are formally recognised as having their origins in Jerusalem.
In approximately 610 AD Muhammad, of the powerful Quraish tribe in Mecca, began receiving what were perceived to be divine revelations and teachings, which led to his recognition as the Prophet Muhammad. These teachings were collected together in the Islamic religious text, the Qur’an. Many Arabs who had previously been either non denominational, or had adopted Judaism or Christianity began to coalesce under Islam. Islam is centred in Mecca, in the south west of the Arabian Peninsula. The two main denominations of Islam, Shi’a and Sunni, are split approximately by 20% to 80% respectively.
There are many lessons, laws and premises that are echoed in the texts of all three religions according to this article from Ohio State University, perhaps due to the historical and cultural influence one had on the next. The texts refer to the same God ‘Yahweh in Hebrew; Jehovah in English; Allah in Arabic’ (and Khuda in Persian). According to the article, all three religions ‘Use similar concepts of Justice. For example the idea that one should always consider God to be present when one is judging. Other than murder, adultery and stealing, bearing false witness was one of the most egregious crimes in the societies in which these religions originated.’
The use of religion to bind groups together that might have differences on a tribal level, but similarities both ethnically and culturally, might provide a valuable means of cohesion, particularly in areas that are relatively unstable, due to their broader geographic and economic importance (Europe, North Asia, Africa, Far East).
Christianity now has a global following of approximately 2.38 billion, Islam approximately 1.9 billion. Judaism has a global following of approximately 16.1 million. It is quite remarkable that the two most represented and one of the oldest monotheistic religions in the world all arose in the Middle East, within just 767 miles of each other. Could the cohesion of disparate groups under religion also create dominance through the sheer weight of numbers? Could these numbers then be leveraged to control this pivotal economic and geopolitical axis of the Middle East, all under the banner of religion?
Faith to fundamentalism
Today, designated terrorist groups of Shi’a denomination often benefit from the support of Shi’a state organisations for recruitment and operation. According to this article by Brookings in 2008, they would be more likely to kidnap hostages in order to barter. Designated Sunni terrorist groups, however, operate in cooperation with internationally based Sunni religious groups to carry out terrorist activities. They would, according to the author Thomas F. Lynch III, be more likely to kill hostages. Shi’a groups tend to use terrorist activities to further political goals in comparison to ‘the high‐casualty killings featured in Sunni terrorism, and particularly of the Salafi‐Jihadist variant’. Shi’a groups are less fond of publicity than Sunni groups. Both types of organisation have their own pattern of operation, which is not necessarily connected to their religious beliefs, but possibly due to the networks they operate within.
You can read more on the religious nature of Shi’a Islam here. Followers of this branch of Islam believe they are the ‘rightful authorities of the Muslim community’, the leaders of which should be direct descendents of the Prophet Muhammad.
Islamist fundamentalist factions vary greatly in size and can quickly increase or decrease according to how successful they are in recruitment for and actual fighting of conflicts. Some groups might number in the region of 100 members at the time of estimation, such as the Hezbollah al Hejaz Shia militant group who strive to make an Islamic state on the Arab Peninsula, acting against Saudi Arabian governance. This group is Shi’a and it is believed to be under influence from Iran, the leader of which, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, is the highest ranking in Shi’a religious authority. Other groups number in the thousands. Below are details of three groups who are also connected to Iran.
Badr Organisation
The Badr Organisation is one of the larger groups, originally based in Iraq but moved to Iran to hide out until around 2003. They are a Shi’a Islamist and Jihadist group made up of a number of brigades and units, and are part of a larger coordinated organisation called the ‘Axis of Resistance’. Conceived and facilitated by Iran, they fought alongside them against the Iraqi military during the Iran-Iraq war.
They also have an informal alliance with Palestinian militant groups, Syria and Hezbollah. In 2015 Hezbollah were seen training Badr fighters at a training camp in Diyala province in Iraq. As of 2019 their numbers were estimated by Washington Institute for Near East Policy fellow Michael Knights to be in the region of 18,000 to 22,000 fighters. Read a full report on them here.
Hezbollah
Hezbollah was also conceived and sponsored by Iran. They are a Shi’a Islamist group and are proponents of Jihad. They have been responsible for terrorist attacks around the world on Jewish, American and Israeli targets. According to the Counterextremism report, Iran supplies arms through Syria to Lebanon, where Hezbollah is headquartered.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in a recent article by Reuters, is reported to have claimed an army of 100,000 fighters. Western estimates are significantly lower but if recruitment has increased with a view to pending war, these numbers may well be correct.
According to the above report Hezbollah also receives training in protection from chemical, nuclear and biological weapons. Trainee fighters receive around a year of tuition on the Islamic revolution, ‘scholarly Islamic texts and martyrdom’, and then another year of military training. Current estimates indicate Hezbollah has amassed 150,000 missiles with a variety of ranges. They are considered a proxy force of Iran and receive funding, training and weapons from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Hezbollah held on to 13 seats in the Lebanese Parliament in the 2018 election, but together with allies they held a majority of 70 out of 128 seats, which was then lost in 2022, though they still hold a significant political sway. The anti-Hezbollah Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned in 2019 after claims of government corruption, possibly helped along by the Hezbollah allied majority.
Houthis
The Houthi rebels violently overthrew the Yemen government in the capital Sanaa in 2015, and formed their own government in 2016, according to the counterextremism report. In the process they have displaced 6 million Yemeni civilians. They are Zaidi Shi’a Islamists, jihadists and very strongly anti America, Israel, antisemite and anti West. They have connections to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and have, according to a UN report in 2015 been receiving financial backing from Iran since at least 2009. Internal estimates number Houthi fighters at 60,000, while external estimates range from 15,000-50,000. Again, recruitment and operations may change that number over time.
Four land attack cruise missiles and 15 drones were intercepted by the USS Carney over the Red Sea over the course of a 9 hour attack on Thursday 19th October 2023. They were detected coming out of Yemen and looked as if they were being aimed at Israel.
The Houthis held a fundraiser in 2021 in Yemen where funds to the tune of ‘around $4 million or slightly above 1 billion Yemeni Rials (YER)’ were raised. As the Houthis in Yemen are now considered to be working in collaboration with Iran and Hezbollah, (the cruise missile launch possibly an indication of a strengthening of collaboration and coordination) their sphere of influence is no longer limited to Yemen or nearby countries.
However, the position of Yemen in the south of the Arabian Peninsula rather isolates them from the conflict in Israel and Gaza, and they are further frustrated by the closure of the Rafah gate, and construction of an underground barrier between Egypt and Gaza.
The effects of the current conflict on the broader region and world are evident, with the US Navy moving their strike group closer to Israel in a show of support, and China positioning 5 warships in the Persian gulf. The negotations for a bilateral agreement of normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel is reported to have been put on ice last week due to the conflict and broader tensions in the Middle East. President Biden said on Friday night (20th October) that it is likely the Hamas attack on the 7th October was timed to interfere with the course of this deal.
Axis of Resistance – A Chaos Driven Movement
The Axis of Resistance represents an unofficial alliance between Iran and organisations in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and of course Gaza. The leading organisation of the resistance is the Qud’s force of Iran. According to Michael Scollon in an article ‘Iran's 'Axis Of Resistance': A Network Designed To Create Chaos, Fight Tehran's Enemies.’, 19th October 2023, the alliance calls for global resistance against Israel and the West.
In a similar manner to that adopted by the Soviet Union/Russia with their proxies, Iran allows its proxies a level of autonomy, which may at times make it appear the proxies are acting against Iran. This, in a similar way to the Soviet Union, gives Iran a level of plausible deniability, but it also means that the proxies take most of the pressure in operations designed to further Iran’s political, economic and territorial aims.
According to the interviewee in the same article, Behnam Ben Taleblu, from the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, suggests that the Twelver Jafari School of Shi'a Islam being projected across the Middle East through these conflicts can only function in a state of chaos. The lack of instruction has it’s own purpose within the groups. They are not certain what they should do next, so must make decisions on attack based on what they believe the end goal to be, which will be partly influenced by Iran, but also very much by the leaders of the individual brigades and organisations.
Disinformation as deflection
Together with the other aspects of terrorist-led warfare, particularly the use of online disinformation, attacks from Hamas to Israel and Israeli retaliatory attacks on Gaza might look completely assymetric. The capability of Hamas terrorists in Gaza seems at first glance to be completely outweighed by the significant size of the Israeli army and reservists.
The outcome of this public and above ground appearance of assymetry between Hamas and Israel is that public opinion can and is swayed in favour of the tiny 25 mile long plot of land that is the Gaza Strip. It seems completely unfair to most observers who do not have a strong grasp of the battle terrain. It is therefore understandable with only social media snapshot information at hand, that Israel’s response might seem heavy handed and unjust.
What the surface assymetry also achieves is deflection of involvement by parties who may be using terrorist groups as proxies. The general public have no real knowledge of strategic planning, military training, financing and armaments supply stemming from these state sponsors.
Yet, when we consider that there are certainly tunnels from Gaza in to Israel, and the likelihood that these extend much further towards and in to Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and even further afield in to Syria and Iran, the assymetry begins to correct. Especially so if we consider the size of the terrorist and national groups that might be involved (see below). As we can see by the ready involvement of Hezbollah at Israel’s northern border, and the closure of the Egyptian and the Jordanian borders, the breaching of Israeli territory underground may have already happened, and may continue to take place in areas where underground borders are not fully secure.
Correcting the perceived imbalance
Over the last week, a campaign to correct this apparent assymetry has been led by spokespeople from the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), Israeli government and bolstered by governments in the West, particular the United States.
We have heard about and been shown the extensive tunnel system underneath Gaza, extending in to Israel and Egypt. Do listen to this interview given by Tim Marshall if you have not already done so. This tunnel system has been frequently spoken about in the press but the extent of it, together with the size of some of the tunnels, large enough to house munitions, and truck sized transport, may not have been fully appreciated until now.
President Hertzog of Israel in an interview to Sky News on 22nd October, 2023 detailed Al-Qaeda leaflets and instructions on how to disperse chemical agents (possibly from canisters) were found at the sites that Hamas had attacked above ground. A significant finding given the Hezbollah chemical training mentioned above.
Detailed explanations of targeting Hamas and Jihadist bunkers are being published on the IDF and spokesperson’s X accounts, and frequent interviews are being given with the international press, who are also being held to account for incorrect reporting and failing to put the record adequately straight.
IDF provided detailed analysis and overhead images of the Baptist hospital site said to have been bombed by Israel. By reviewing available footage, images provided by drones, on the ground photographs, detailed knowledge of the layout of missile launch sites and knowledge of explosive patterns they established that the explosion was not from an Israeli missile but likely the result of a Hamas rocket failure. They also put together a report on how many rocket failures there had been over the period by Hamas, some of which had fallen on Gaza citizens.
An apparent Israeli missile hit on the evacuation route from north to south Gaza was also analysed in detail by both independent and IDF experts and shown to be probably a roadside bomb, an IED, planted by Hamas. This was coupled by aerial images of a road blockade also likely to have been put in place by Hamas to prevent residents from evacuating, thereby providing them with human shields.
Israeli spokespeople have continued to make clear that Hamas uses their citizens as human shields and shows little regard for their safety. They have also pointed out regularly that Islamic Jihad rockets, which may be supplied by the West Bank, or further afield, are being fired from the Gaza Strip.
The IDF have also kept the international press updated with attempts by Hezbollah to attack them overground in North Israel and have evacuated 24,000 Israeli citizens from along that border to keep them safe.
In terms of the international picture, think tanks and certain press outlets are focusing on shedding light on the funding by Qatar, the Houthis and Iran of Hamas. They are also highlighting the connections between Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis and why this broader involvement might lead to a larger war in the Middle East.
Size of Forces
To put the assymetry further in to perspective, we have attempted to estimate the size of the organisations, including Iranian military, connected through the ‘Axis of Resistance’. As stated before, the numbers of fighters and weaponry can change according to recruitment and success in battle.
The article ‘Iran’s Islamist Proxies in the Middle East’ by the Wilson Centre, shows known Iranian proxies on a map (see below). The distribution with regard to trade/access routes and the Fertile Crescent is notable.
Iran
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Quds Force) – specialist forces, estimated size 15,000
Iranian Army – 350,000 men which includes 220,000 conscripts
Iranian Airforce – 30,000 personnel
Iranian Navy – 18,000 personnel
Syria
Zaynabiyoun Brigade - Numbers unclear
Fatemiyoun Division - Approximately 8,000 retained in Syria, others relocated to Yeman, Iran and Afghanistan. Total militants in 2019, 50,000
Lebanon
Hezbollah – Internal estimates 100,000, Radwan Force (commando), 2,500. External estimates by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 22,000 permanent fighters, 20,000 reservists and a maximum of 60,000.
Palestine Territories
Hamas – al Qassam Brigades – 30,000-40,000 Axios update 21.01.23
Palestinian Islamic Jihad – Recent estimates from Australian Government 1,000-8,000 fighters
Iraq
Kataib Hezbollah – recent estimates from Israeli Meir Amit Intelligence site between 5,000-30,000.
Asaib Ahl al Haq – 7,000-10,000 (2018 estimate) Source: Iran Primer, US Institute of Peace.
Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba – 8,000-10,000 Source: Meir Amit
Badr Organisation – 18,000 – 22,000 (2019)
Kataib Sayyad al Shuhada – Claimed in 2021 to have recruited 41,000 volunteer fighters. Source: Washington Institute. Core forces unknown.
Bahrain
Al Ashtar Brigades – Size unknown
Saraya al Mukhtar – Size unknown
Yemen
Ansar Allah (Houthis) – Internal 60,000, External estimates between 15,000-50,000
Very informative with many links to various sources. Just a little overwhelmed when adding up the numbers of the ‘axis of resistance’ & allies.
Thank you.